2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 25-29 | Kentucky, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 25-29 in Kentucky

1. 332 of 332 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 18% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 280 of 280 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 52 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 481 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 18% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 25-29 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 332 of 151,829 men aged 25-29 living in Kentucky died from All Causes.

332 ÷ 151,829 = 0.00219 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 3,865 deaths from All Causes among 2,097,157 men aged 25-29 living in Kentucky in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

3,865 ÷ 2,097,157 = 0.00184 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

151,829 X 0.00184 = 280 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

332 – 280 = 52

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

332 ÷ 280 = 1.1801

This reveals 52 lives lost and is 118.01% of what we expected (an increase of 18%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 25-29 living in Kentucky in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

2,414 ÷ 1,077,430 = 0.00224 (5-yr CDR)

151,829(2022 pop) X 0.00224 = 340 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

332 – 340 = -8 or 8 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

332 ÷ 340 = 0.9716 or a decrease of 3%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 25-29 living in Kentucky in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,229,259 X 0.00184 = 2,265 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2746 – 2,265 = 481 or 481 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

2,746 ÷ 2,265 = 1.2056 or an increase of 21%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 25-29 living in Kentucky in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.