2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Baby – Under 1 | Massachusetts, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for babies in their first year of life in Massachusetts

1. 208 of 227 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 91.63% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 20% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 258 of 340 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 50 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 113 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 279 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 603 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Massachusetts’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 20% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many babies in their first year of life were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 208 of 70,623 babies in their first year of life living in Massachusetts died from Unknown Causes.

208 ÷ 70,623 = 0.00295 (2022 CDR)

The table shows there were a total of 4,116 deaths from Unknown Causes among 1,125,956 babies in their first year of life living in Massachusetts in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

4,116 ÷ 1,125,956 = 0.00366 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

70,623 X 0.00366 = 258 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

208 – 258 = -50

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

208 ÷ 258 = 0.8035

This reveals 50 lives saved and is 80.35% of what we expected (a decrease of 20%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among babies in their first year of life living in Massachusetts in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

1,574 ÷ 493,250 = 0.00319 (5-yr CDR)

70,623(2022 pop) X 0.00319 = 225 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

208 – 225 = -17 or 17 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

208 ÷ 225 = 0.9201 or a decrease of 8%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among babies in their first year of life living in Massachusetts in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

563,873 X 0.00366 = 2,061 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1782 – 2,061 = -279 or 279 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

1,782 ÷ 2,061 = 0.8622 or a decrease of 14%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among babies in their first year of life living in Massachusetts in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.