2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 65-69 | Massachusetts, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 65-69 in Massachusetts

1. 1,482 of 5,114 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 28.98% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 15% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,748 of 5,776 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 266 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 662 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 1,531 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 5,329 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Massachusetts’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 15% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 65-69 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,482 of 405,281 elderly men and women aged 65-69 living in Massachusetts died from Unknown Causes.

1,482 ÷ 405,281 = 0.00366 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 16,027 deaths from Unknown Causes among 3,716,544 elderly men and women aged 65-69 living in Massachusetts in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

16,027 ÷ 3,716,544 = 0.00431 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

405,281 X 0.00431 = 1,748 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,482 – 1,748 = -266

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,482 ÷ 1,748 = 0.8460

This reveals 266 lives saved and is 84.60% of what we expected (a decrease of 15%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 65-69 living in Massachusetts in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

9,917 ÷ 2,593,106 = 0.00382 (5-yr CDR)

405,281(2022 pop) X 0.00382 = 1,550 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,482 – 1,550 = -68 or 68 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,482 ÷ 1,550 = 0.9537 or a decrease of 5%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 65-69 living in Massachusetts in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,998,387 X 0.00431 = 12,930 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

11399 – 12,930 = -1,531 or 1,531 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

11,399 ÷ 12,930 = 0.8795 or a decrease of 12%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 65-69 living in Massachusetts in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.