2022 Deaths – All Causes – Baby – Under 1 | New York, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for babies in their first year of life in New York

1. 884 of 884 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 28% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,224 of 1,224 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 340 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 2,571 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 28% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many babies in their first year of life were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 884 of 214,746 babies in their first year of life living in New York died from All Causes.

884 ÷ 214,746 = 0.00412 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 20,608 deaths from All Causes among 3,617,044 babies in their first year of life living in New York in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

20,608 ÷ 3,617,044 = 0.00570 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

214,746 X 0.00570 = 1,224 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

884 – 1,224 = -340

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

884 ÷ 1,224 = 0.7212

This reveals 340 lives saved and is 72.12% of what we expected (a decrease of 28%) in deaths from All Causes among babies in their first year of life living in New York in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

6,831 ÷ 1,590,681 = 0.00429 (5-yr CDR)

214,746(2022 pop) X 0.00429 = 922 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

884 – 922 = -38 or 38 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

884 ÷ 922 = 0.9563 or a decrease of 4%

for deaths from All Causes among babies in their first year of life living in New York in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,805,427 X 0.00570 = 10,286 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

7715 – 10,286 = -2,571 or 2,571 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

7,715 ÷ 10,286 = 0.7487 or a decrease of 25%

in deaths from All Causes among babies in their first year of life living in New York in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.