2022 Deaths – All Causes – Teen-aged – 15-19 | New York, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for teens aged 15-19 in New York

1. 407 of 407 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 18% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 487 of 487 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 80 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 810 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 18% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many teens aged 15-19 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 407 of 1,194,568 teens aged 15-19 living in New York died from All Causes.

407 ÷ 1,194,568 = 0.00034 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 8,149 deaths from All Causes among 20,005,972 teens aged 15-19 living in New York in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

8,149 ÷ 20,005,972 = 0.00041 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,194,568 X 0.00041 = 487 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

407 – 487 = -80

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

407 ÷ 487 = 0.8164

This reveals 80 lives saved and is 81.64% of what we expected (a decrease of 18%) in deaths from All Causes among teens aged 15-19 living in New York in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

2,705 ÷ 8,434,989 = 0.00032 (5-yr CDR)

1,194,568(2022 pop) X 0.00032 = 383 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

407 – 383 = 24 or 24 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

407 ÷ 383 = 1.0303 or an increase of 3%

for deaths from All Causes among teens aged 15-19 living in New York in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

9,629,557 X 0.00041 = 3,922 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3112 – 3,922 = -810 or 810 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

3,112 ÷ 3,922 = 0.7744 or a decrease of 23%

in deaths from All Causes among teens aged 15-19 living in New York in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.