2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 40-44 | New York, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 40-44 in New York

1. 2,867 of 2,867 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 22% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 2,328 of 2,328 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 539 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 401 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 22% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 40-44 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 2,867 of 1,224,012 people aged 40-44 living in New York died from All Causes.

2,867 ÷ 1,224,012 = 0.00234 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 40,747 deaths from All Causes among 21,421,388 people aged 40-44 living in New York in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

40,747 ÷ 21,421,388 = 0.00190 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,224,012 X 0.00190 = 2,328 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

2,867 – 2,328 = 539

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

2,867 ÷ 2,328 = 1.2249

This reveals 539 lives lost and is 122.49% of what we expected (an increase of 22%) in deaths from All Causes among people aged 40-44 living in New York in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

15,667 ÷ 8,309,006 = 0.00189 (5-yr CDR)

1,224,012(2022 pop) X 0.00189 = 2,308 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2,867 – 2,308 = 559 or 559 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

2,867 ÷ 2,308 = 1.2357 or an increase of 24%

for deaths from All Causes among people aged 40-44 living in New York in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

9,533,018 X 0.00190 = 18,133 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

18534 – 18,133 = 401 or 401 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

18,534 ÷ 18,133 = 1.0167 or an increase of 2%

in deaths from All Causes among people aged 40-44 living in New York in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.