2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 45-49 | New York, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 45-49 in New York

1. 3,443 of 3,443 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 2% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 3,362 of 3,362 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 81 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 2,067 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 2% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 45-49 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 3,443 of 1,141,785 people aged 45-49 living in New York died from All Causes.

3,443 ÷ 1,141,785 = 0.00302 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 62,776 deaths from All Causes among 21,319,511 people aged 45-49 living in New York in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

62,776 ÷ 21,319,511 = 0.00294 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,141,785 X 0.00294 = 3,362 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

3,443 – 3,362 = 81

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

3,443 ÷ 3,362 = 1.0206

This reveals 81 lives lost and is 102.06% of what we expected (an increase of 2%) in deaths from All Causes among people aged 45-49 living in New York in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

23,454 ÷ 8,694,722 = 0.00270 (5-yr CDR)

1,141,785(2022 pop) X 0.00270 = 3,080 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3,443 – 3,080 = 363 or 363 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

3,443 ÷ 3,080 = 1.1137 or an increase of 11%

for deaths from All Causes among people aged 45-49 living in New York in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

9,836,507 X 0.00294 = 28,964 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

26897 – 28,964 = -2,067 or 2,067 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

26,897 ÷ 28,964 = 0.9255 or a decrease of 7%

in deaths from All Causes among people aged 45-49 living in New York in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.