2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 70-74 | New York, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 70-74 in New York

1. 17,776 of 17,776 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 15% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 20,821 of 20,821 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 3,045 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 17,088 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 15% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 70-74 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 17,776 of 908,521 elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in New York died from All Causes.

17,776 ÷ 908,521 = 0.01957 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 206,187 deaths from All Causes among 8,996,761 elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in New York in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

206,187 ÷ 8,996,761 = 0.02292 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

908,521 X 0.02292 = 20,821 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

17,776 – 20,821 = -3,045

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

17,776 ÷ 20,821 = 0.8534

This reveals 3,045 lives saved and is 85.34% of what we expected (a decrease of 15%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in New York in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

113,518 ÷ 5,565,978 = 0.02039 (5-yr CDR)

908,521(2022 pop) X 0.02039 = 18,529 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

17,776 – 18,529 = -753 or 753 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

17,776 ÷ 18,529 = 0.9589 or a decrease of 4%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in New York in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

6,474,499 X 0.02292 = 148,382 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

131294 – 148,382 = -17,088 or 17,088 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

131,294 ÷ 148,382 = 0.8845 or a decrease of 12%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in New York in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.