2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 80+ | New York, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 80+ in New York

1. 32,903 of 32,903 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 3% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 32,083 of 32,083 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 820 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 17,464 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 3% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 80+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 32,903 of 170,405 elderly men aged 80+ living in New York died from All Causes.

32,903 ÷ 170,405 = 0.19309 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 406,804 deaths from All Causes among 2,160,682 elderly men aged 80+ living in New York in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

406,804 ÷ 2,160,682 = 0.18828 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

170,405 X 0.18828 = 32,083 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

32,903 – 32,083 = 820

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

32,903 ÷ 32,083 = 1.0255

This reveals 820 lives lost and is 102.55% of what we expected (an increase of 3%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 80+ living in New York in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

223,677 ÷ 1,099,624 = 0.20341 (5-yr CDR)

170,405(2022 pop) X 0.20341 = 34,662 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

32,903 – 34,662 = -1,759 or 1,759 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

32,903 ÷ 34,662 = 0.9492 or a decrease of 5%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 80+ living in New York in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,270,029 X 0.18828 = 239,116 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

256580 – 239,116 = 17,464 or 17,464 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

256,580 ÷ 239,116 = 1.0730 or an increase of 7%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 80+ living in New York in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.