2022 Deaths – All Causes – Teen-aged – Ages 15-19 | Texas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for teens aged 15-19 in Texas

1. 1,413 of 1,413 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 8% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,281 of 1,281 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 132 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 597 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 8% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many teens aged 15-19 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,413 of 2,152,692 teens aged 15-19 living in Texas died from All Causes.

1,413 ÷ 2,152,692 = 0.00066 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 16,005 deaths from All Causes among 26,888,785 teens aged 15-19 living in Texas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

16,005 ÷ 26,888,785 = 0.00060 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

2,152,692 X 0.00060 = 1,281 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,413 – 1,281 = 132

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,413 ÷ 1,281 = 1.0845

This reveals 132 lives lost and is 108.45% of what we expected (an increase of 8%) in deaths from All Causes among teens aged 15-19 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

7,717 ÷ 14,188,900 = 0.00054 (5-yr CDR)

2,152,692(2022 pop) X 0.00054 = 1,171 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,413 – 1,171 = 242 or 242 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,413 ÷ 1,171 = 1.1851 or an increase of 19%

for deaths from All Causes among teens aged 15-19 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

16,341,592 X 0.00060 = 9,727 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

9130 – 9,727 = -597 or 597 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

9,130 ÷ 9,727 = 0.9231 or a decrease of 8%

in deaths from All Causes among teens aged 15-19 living in Texas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.