2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 35-39 | Texas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 35-39 in Texas

1. 4,212 of 4,212 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 33% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 3,144 of 3,144 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 1,068 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 4,061 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 33% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 35-39 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 4,212 of 2,151,212 people aged 35-39 living in Texas died from All Causes.

4,212 ÷ 2,151,212 = 0.00196 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 37,394 deaths from All Causes among 25,587,696 people aged 35-39 living in Texas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

37,394 ÷ 25,587,696 = 0.00146 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

2,151,212 X 0.00146 = 3,144 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

4,212 – 3,144 = 1,068

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

4,212 ÷ 3,144 = 1.3307

This reveals 1,068 lives lost and is 133.07% of what we expected (an increase of 33%) in deaths from All Causes among people aged 35-39 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

23,551 ÷ 14,067,615 = 0.00167 (5-yr CDR)

2,151,212(2022 pop) X 0.00167 = 3,601 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

4,212 – 3,601 = 611 or 611 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

4,212 ÷ 3,601 = 1.1626 or an increase of 16%

for deaths from All Causes among people aged 35-39 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

16,218,827 X 0.00146 = 23,702 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

27763 – 23,702 = 4,061 or 4,061 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

27,763 ÷ 23,702 = 1.1634 or an increase of 16%

in deaths from All Causes among people aged 35-39 living in Texas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.