2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 45-49 | Texas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 45-49 in Texas

1. 6,347 of 6,347 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 0% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 6,346 of 6,346 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 1 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,171 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 0% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 45-49 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 6,347 of 1,856,501 people aged 45-49 living in Texas died from All Causes.

6,347 ÷ 1,856,501 = 0.00342 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 84,737 deaths from All Causes among 24,791,015 people aged 45-49 living in Texas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

84,737 ÷ 24,791,015 = 0.00342 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,856,501 X 0.00342 = 6,346 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

6,347 – 6,346 = 1

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

6,347 ÷ 6,346 = 0.9973

This reveals 1 lives saved and is 99.73% of what we expected (a decrease of 0%) in deaths from All Causes among people aged 45-49 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

42,369 ÷ 12,738,598 = 0.00333 (5-yr CDR)

1,856,501(2022 pop) X 0.00333 = 6,175 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

6,347 – 6,175 = 172 or 172 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

6,347 ÷ 6,175 = 1.0248 or an increase of 2%

for deaths from All Causes among people aged 45-49 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

14,595,099 X 0.00342 = 49,887 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

48716 – 49,887 = -1,171 or 1,171 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

48,716 ÷ 49,887 = 0.9737 or a decrease of 3%

in deaths from All Causes among people aged 45-49 living in Texas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.