2022 Deaths – All Causes – Girls And Boys – Ages 5-9 | Texas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for children aged 5-9 in Texas

1. 264 of 264 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 17% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 296 of 296 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 32 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 350 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 17% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many children aged 5-9 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 264 of 2,085,857 children aged 5-9 living in Texas died from All Causes.

264 ÷ 2,085,857 = 0.00013 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 3,820 deaths from All Causes among 26,936,065 children aged 5-9 living in Texas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

3,820 ÷ 26,936,065 = 0.00014 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

2,085,857 X 0.00014 = 296 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

264 – 296 = -32

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

264 ÷ 296 = 0.8337

This reveals 32 lives saved and is 83.37% of what we expected (a decrease of 17%) in deaths from All Causes among children aged 5-9 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

1,723 ÷ 14,393,179 = 0.00012 (5-yr CDR)

2,085,857(2022 pop) X 0.00012 = 250 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

264 – 250 = 14 or 14 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

264 ÷ 250 = 0.9758 or an increase of 2%

for deaths from All Causes among children aged 5-9 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

16,479,036 X 0.00014 = 2,337 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1987 – 2,337 = -350 or 350 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

1,987 ÷ 2,337 = 0.7942 or a decrease of 21%

in deaths from All Causes among children aged 5-9 living in Texas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.