2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 50-54 | Texas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 50-54 in Texas

1. 5,776 of 5,776 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 4% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 5,993 of 5,993 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 217 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 503 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 4% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 50-54 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 5,776 of 916,815 men aged 50-54 living in Texas died from All Causes.

5,776 ÷ 916,815 = 0.00630 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 73,526 deaths from All Causes among 11,248,761 men aged 50-54 living in Texas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

73,526 ÷ 11,248,761 = 0.00654 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

916,815 X 0.00654 = 5,993 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

5,776 – 5,993 = -217

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

5,776 ÷ 5,993 = 0.9624

This reveals 217 lives saved and is 96.24% of what we expected (a decrease of 4%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 50-54 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

39,093 ÷ 6,024,663 = 0.00649 (5-yr CDR)

916,815(2022 pop) X 0.00649 = 5,949 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

5,776 – 5,949 = -173 or 173 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

5,776 ÷ 5,949 = 0.9694 or a decrease of 3%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 50-54 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

6,941,478 X 0.00654 = 45,372 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

44869 – 45,372 = -503 or 503 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

44,869 ÷ 45,372 = 0.9874 or a decrease of 1%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 50-54 living in Texas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.