2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 70-74 | Texas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 70-74 in Texas

1. 15,491 of 15,491 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 1% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 15,639 of 15,639 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 148 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 4,316 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 1% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 70-74 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 15,491 of 493,656 elderly men aged 70-74 living in Texas died from All Causes.

15,491 ÷ 493,656 = 0.03138 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 129,956 deaths from All Causes among 4,102,161 elderly men aged 70-74 living in Texas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

129,956 ÷ 4,102,161 = 0.03168 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

493,656 X 0.03168 = 15,639 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

15,491 – 15,639 = -148

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

15,491 ÷ 15,639 = 0.9902

This reveals 148 lives saved and is 99.02% of what we expected (a decrease of 1%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

91,713 ÷ 3,026,568 = 0.03030 (5-yr CDR)

493,656(2022 pop) X 0.03030 = 14,959 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

15,491 – 14,959 = 532 or 532 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

15,491 ÷ 14,959 = 1.0352 or an increase of 4%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

3,520,224 X 0.03168 = 111,520 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

107204 – 111,520 = -4,316 or 4,316 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

107,204 ÷ 111,520 = 0.9610 or a decrease of 4%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in Texas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.