2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 80+ | Texas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 80+ in Texas

1. 38,498 of 38,498 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 8% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 35,572 of 35,572 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 2,926 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 12,503 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 8% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 80+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 38,498 of 186,051 elderly men aged 80+ living in Texas died from All Causes.

38,498 ÷ 186,051 = 0.20692 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 372,146 deaths from All Causes among 1,946,403 elderly men aged 80+ living in Texas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

372,146 ÷ 1,946,403 = 0.19120 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

186,051 X 0.19120 = 35,572 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

38,498 – 35,572 = 2,926

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

38,498 ÷ 35,572 = 1.0822

This reveals 2,926 lives lost and is 108.22% of what we expected (an increase of 8%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 80+ living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

239,180 ÷ 1,200,870 = 0.19917 (5-yr CDR)

186,051(2022 pop) X 0.19917 = 37,056 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

38,498 – 37,056 = 1,442 or 1,442 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

38,498 ÷ 37,056 = 1.0389 or an increase of 4%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 80+ living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,386,921 X 0.19120 = 265,175 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

277678 – 265,175 = 12,503 or 12,503 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

277,678 ÷ 265,175 = 1.0471 or an increase of 5%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 80+ living in Texas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.