2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Girls And Boys – Ages 10-14 | Texas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for children aged 10-14 in Texas

1. 304 of 389 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 78.15% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 18% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 349 of 372 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 45 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 17 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 478 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 207 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Texas’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 18% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many children aged 10-14 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 304 of 2,150,307 children aged 10-14 living in Texas died from Unknown Causes.

304 ÷ 2,150,307 = 0.00014 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 4,405 deaths from Unknown Causes among 27,176,455 children aged 10-14 living in Texas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

4,405 ÷ 27,176,455 = 0.00016 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

2,150,307 X 0.00016 = 349 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

304 – 349 = -45

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

304 ÷ 349 = 0.8215

This reveals 45 lives saved and is 82.15% of what we expected (a decrease of 18%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among children aged 10-14 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

1,934 ÷ 14,604,929 = 0.00013 (5-yr CDR)

2,150,307(2022 pop) X 0.00013 = 285 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

304 – 285 = 19 or 19 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

304 ÷ 285 = 0.9927 or a decrease of 1%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among children aged 10-14 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

16,755,236 X 0.00016 = 2,716 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2238 – 2,716 = -478 or 478 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

2,238 ÷ 2,716 = 0.7762 or a decrease of 22%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among children aged 10-14 living in Texas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.