2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 80+ | Texas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 80+ in Texas

1. 9,631 of 89,287 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 10.79% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 5% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 10,101 of 85,770 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 470 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 3,517 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 5,141 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 17,137 excess All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Texas’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 5% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 80+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 9,631 of 441,317 elderly men and women aged 80+ living in Texas died from Unknown Causes.

9,631 ÷ 441,317 = 0.02182 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 112,797 deaths from Unknown Causes among 4,928,006 elderly men and women aged 80+ living in Texas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

112,797 ÷ 4,928,006 = 0.02289 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

441,317 X 0.02289 = 10,101 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

9,631 – 10,101 = -470

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

9,631 ÷ 10,101 = 0.9530

This reveals 470 lives saved and is 95.30% of what we expected (a decrease of 5%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 80+ living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

60,544 ÷ 2,849,190 = 0.02125 (5-yr CDR)

441,317(2022 pop) X 0.02125 = 9,378 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

9,631 – 9,378 = 253 or 253 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

9,631 ÷ 9,378 = 1.0265 or an increase of 3%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 80+ living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

3,290,507 X 0.02289 = 75,316 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

70175 – 75,316 = -5,141 or 5,141 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

70,175 ÷ 75,316 = 0.9313 or a decrease of 7%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 80+ living in Texas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.