2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – Ages 70-74 | Texas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 70-74 in Texas

1. 1,739 of 15,491 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 11.23% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 14% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 2,005 of 15,639 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 266 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 148 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 2,325 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 4,316 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Texas’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 14% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 70-74 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,739 of 493,656 elderly men aged 70-74 living in Texas died from Unknown Causes.

1,739 ÷ 493,656 = 0.00352 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 16,665 deaths from Unknown Causes among 4,102,161 elderly men aged 70-74 living in Texas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

16,665 ÷ 4,102,161 = 0.00406 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

493,656 X 0.00406 = 2,005 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,739 – 2,005 = -266

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,739 ÷ 2,005 = 0.8650

This reveals 266 lives saved and is 86.50% of what we expected (a decrease of 14%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

10,237 ÷ 3,026,568 = 0.00338 (5-yr CDR)

493,656(2022 pop) X 0.00338 = 1,670 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,739 – 1,670 = 69 or 69 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,739 ÷ 1,670 = 1.0384 or an increase of 4%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

3,520,224 X 0.00406 = 14,301 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

11976 – 14,301 = -2,325 or 2,325 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

11,976 ÷ 14,301 = 0.8354 or a decrease of 16%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in Texas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.