2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – Ages 40-44 | United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for women aged 40-44 in United States

1. 21,524 of 21,524 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 20% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 17,795 of 17,795 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 3,729 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 10,230 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 20% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many women aged 40-44 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 21,524 of 10,609,527 women aged 40-44 living in United States died from All Causes.

21,524 ÷ 10,609,527 = 0.00203 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 276,676 deaths from All Causes among 164,955,837 women aged 40-44 living in United States in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

276,676 ÷ 164,955,837 = 0.00168 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

10,609,527 X 0.00168 = 17,795 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

21,524 – 17,795 = 3,729

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

21,524 ÷ 17,795 = 1.2024

This reveals 3,729 lives lost and is 120.24% of what we expected (an increase of 20%) in deaths from All Causes among women aged 40-44 living in United States in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

124,979 ÷ 70,636,972 = 0.00177 (5-yr CDR)

10,609,527(2022 pop) X 0.00177 = 18,772 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

21,524 – 18,772 = 2,752 or 2,752 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

21,524 ÷ 18,772 = 1.1402 or an increase of 14%

for deaths from All Causes among women aged 40-44 living in United States in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

81,246,499 X 0.00168 = 136,273 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

146503 – 136,273 = 10,230 or 10,230 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

146,503 ÷ 136,273 = 1.0687 or an increase of 7%

in deaths from All Causes among women aged 40-44 living in United States in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.