2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 40-44 | Washington, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 40-44 in Washington

1. 1,261 of 1,261 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 32% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 950 of 950 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 311 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 524 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 32% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 40-44 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,261 of 530,134 people aged 40-44 living in Washington died from All Causes.

1,261 ÷ 530,134 = 0.00238 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 12,788 deaths from All Causes among 7,138,501 people aged 40-44 living in Washington in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

12,788 ÷ 7,138,501 = 0.00179 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

530,134 X 0.00179 = 950 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,261 – 950 = 311

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,261 ÷ 950 = 1.3204

This reveals 311 lives lost and is 132.04% of what we expected (an increase of 32%) in deaths from All Causes among people aged 40-44 living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

6,149 ÷ 3,313,580 = 0.00186 (5-yr CDR)

530,134(2022 pop) X 0.00186 = 984 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,261 – 984 = 277 or 277 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,261 ÷ 984 = 1.2749 or an increase of 27%

for deaths from All Causes among people aged 40-44 living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

3,843,714 X 0.00179 = 6,886 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

7410 – 6,886 = 524 or 524 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

7,410 ÷ 6,886 = 1.0702 or an increase of 7%

in deaths from All Causes among people aged 40-44 living in Washington in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.