2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 55-59 | Washington, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 55-59 in Washington

1. 3,238 of 3,238 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 13% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 2,850 of 2,850 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 388 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,138 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 13% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 55-59 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 3,238 of 459,024 people aged 55-59 living in Washington died from All Causes.

3,238 ÷ 459,024 = 0.00705 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 37,874 deaths from All Causes among 6,100,462 people aged 55-59 living in Washington in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

37,874 ÷ 6,100,462 = 0.00621 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

459,024 X 0.00621 = 2,850 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

3,238 – 2,850 = 388

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

3,238 ÷ 2,850 = 1.1344

This reveals 388 lives lost and is 113.44% of what we expected (an increase of 13%) in deaths from All Causes among people aged 55-59 living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

21,890 ÷ 3,405,142 = 0.00643 (5-yr CDR)

459,024(2022 pop) X 0.00643 = 2,951 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3,238 – 2,951 = 287 or 287 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

3,238 ÷ 2,951 = 1.0956 or an increase of 10%

for deaths from All Causes among people aged 55-59 living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

3,864,166 X 0.00621 = 23,990 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

25128 – 23,990 = 1,138 or 1,138 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

25,128 ÷ 23,990 = 1.0457 or an increase of 5%

in deaths from All Causes among people aged 55-59 living in Washington in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.