2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 80+ | Washington, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 80+ in Washington

1. 29,129 of 29,129 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 3% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 28,415 of 28,415 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 714 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 8,523 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 3% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 80+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 29,129 of 141,652 elderly men and women aged 80+ living in Washington died from All Causes.

29,129 ÷ 141,652 = 0.20564 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 330,406 deaths from All Causes among 1,647,107 elderly men and women aged 80+ living in Washington in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

330,406 ÷ 1,647,107 = 0.20060 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

141,652 X 0.20060 = 28,415 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

29,129 – 28,415 = 714

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

29,129 ÷ 28,415 = 1.0251

This reveals 714 lives lost and is 102.51% of what we expected (an increase of 3%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 80+ living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

181,734 ÷ 867,031 = 0.20960 (5-yr CDR)

141,652(2022 pop) X 0.20960 = 29,691 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

29,129 – 29,691 = -562 or 562 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

29,129 ÷ 29,691 = 0.9810 or a decrease of 2%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 80+ living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,008,683 X 0.20060 = 202,340 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

210863 – 202,340 = 8,523 or 8,523 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

210,863 ÷ 202,340 = 1.0421 or an increase of 4%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 80+ living in Washington in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.