2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 20-24 | Washington, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 20-24 in Washington

1. 345 of 345 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 17% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 291 of 291 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 54 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 174 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 17% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 20-24 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 345 of 262,642 men aged 20-24 living in Washington died from All Causes.

345 ÷ 262,642 = 0.00131 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 3,913 deaths from All Causes among 3,529,582 men aged 20-24 living in Washington in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

3,913 ÷ 3,529,582 = 0.00111 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

262,642 X 0.00111 = 291 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

345 – 291 = 54

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

345 ÷ 291 = 1.1743

This reveals 54 lives lost and is 117.43% of what we expected (an increase of 17%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 20-24 living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

2,081 ÷ 1,768,608 = 0.00118 (5-yr CDR)

262,642(2022 pop) X 0.00118 = 309 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

345 – 309 = 36 or 36 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

345 ÷ 309 = 1.1070 or an increase of 11%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 20-24 living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,031,250 X 0.00111 = 2,252 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2426 – 2,252 = 174 or 174 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

2,426 ÷ 2,252 = 1.0677 or an increase of 7%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 20-24 living in Washington in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.