2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – 45-49 | Washington, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 45-49 in Washington

1. 876 of 876 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 10% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 795 of 795 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 81 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 147 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 10% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 45-49 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 876 of 233,568 men aged 45-49 living in Washington died from All Causes.

876 ÷ 233,568 = 0.00375 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 12,256 deaths from All Causes among 3,599,737 men aged 45-49 living in Washington in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

12,256 ÷ 3,599,737 = 0.00340 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

233,568 X 0.00340 = 795 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

876 – 795 = 81

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

876 ÷ 795 = 1.0983

This reveals 81 lives lost and is 109.83% of what we expected (an increase of 10%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 45-49 living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

5,399 ÷ 1,652,534 = 0.00327 (5-yr CDR)

233,568(2022 pop) X 0.00327 = 763 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

876 – 763 = 113 or 113 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

876 ÷ 763 = 1.1445 or an increase of 14%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 45-49 living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,886,102 X 0.00340 = 6,422 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

6275 – 6,422 = -147 or 147 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

6,275 ÷ 6,422 = 0.9743 or a decrease of 3%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 45-49 living in Washington in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.