2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 65-69 | Washington, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 65-69 in Washington

1. 3,765 of 3,765 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 4% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 3,603 of 3,603 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 162 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 576 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 4% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 65-69 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 3,765 of 207,556 elderly men aged 65-69 living in Washington died from All Causes.

3,765 ÷ 207,556 = 0.01814 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 30,322 deaths from All Causes among 1,746,799 elderly men aged 65-69 living in Washington in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

30,322 ÷ 1,746,799 = 0.01736 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

207,556 X 0.01736 = 3,603 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

3,765 – 3,603 = 162

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

3,765 ÷ 3,603 = 1.0444

This reveals 162 lives lost and is 104.44% of what we expected (an increase of 4%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 65-69 living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

22,585 ÷ 1,343,618 = 0.01681 (5-yr CDR)

207,556(2022 pop) X 0.01681 = 3,489 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3,765 – 3,489 = 276 or 276 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

3,765 ÷ 3,489 = 1.0785 or an increase of 8%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 65-69 living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,551,174 X 0.01736 = 26,926 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

26350 – 26,926 = -576 or 576 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

26,350 ÷ 26,926 = 0.9780 or a decrease of 2%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 65-69 living in Washington in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.