2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – 70-74 | Washington, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 70-74 in Washington

1. 4,367 of 4,367 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 6% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 4,627 of 4,627 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 260 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 3,532 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 6% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 70-74 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 4,367 of 166,234 elderly men aged 70-74 living in Washington died from All Causes.

4,367 ÷ 166,234 = 0.02627 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 35,424 deaths from All Causes among 1,272,696 elderly men aged 70-74 living in Washington in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

35,424 ÷ 1,272,696 = 0.02783 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

166,234 X 0.02783 = 4,627 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

4,367 – 4,627 = -260

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

4,367 ÷ 4,627 = 0.9435

This reveals 260 lives saved and is 94.35% of what we expected (a decrease of 6%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

24,795 ÷ 1,008,386 = 0.02459 (5-yr CDR)

166,234(2022 pop) X 0.02459 = 4,087 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

4,367 – 4,087 = 280 or 280 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

4,367 ÷ 4,087 = 1.0679 or an increase of 7%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,174,620 X 0.02783 = 32,694 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

29162 – 32,694 = -3,532 or 3,532 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

29,162 ÷ 32,694 = 0.8916 or a decrease of 11%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in Washington in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.