2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – 80+ | Washington, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 80+ in Washington

1. 12,896 of 12,896 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 2% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 12,655 of 12,655 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 241 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 1,482 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 2% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 80+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 12,896 of 62,838 elderly men aged 80+ living in Washington died from All Causes.

12,896 ÷ 62,838 = 0.20523 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 134,805 deaths from All Causes among 669,360 elderly men aged 80+ living in Washington in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

134,805 ÷ 669,360 = 0.20139 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

62,838 X 0.20139 = 12,655 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

12,896 – 12,655 = 241

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

12,896 ÷ 12,655 = 1.0190

This reveals 241 lives lost and is 101.90% of what we expected (an increase of 2%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 80+ living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

77,876 ÷ 380,524 = 0.20465 (5-yr CDR)

62,838(2022 pop) X 0.20465 = 12,860 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

12,896 – 12,860 = 36 or 36 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

12,896 ÷ 12,860 = 1.0027 or an increase of 0%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 80+ living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

443,362 X 0.20139 = 89,290 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

90772 – 89,290 = 1,482 or 1,482 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

90,772 ÷ 89,290 = 1.0165 or an increase of 2%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men aged 80+ living in Washington in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.