2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Baby – Under 1 | Washington, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for babies in their first year of life in Washington

1. 328 of 360 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 91.11% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 13% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 376 of 428 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 48 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 68 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 439 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 536 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Washington’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 13% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many babies in their first year of life were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 328 of 84,431 babies in their first year of life living in Washington died from Unknown Causes.

328 ÷ 84,431 = 0.00388 (2022 CDR)

The table shows there were a total of 5,672 deaths from Unknown Causes among 1,272,297 babies in their first year of life living in Washington in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

5,672 ÷ 1,272,297 = 0.00446 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

84,431 X 0.00446 = 376 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

328 – 376 = -48

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

328 ÷ 376 = 0.8695

This reveals 48 lives saved and is 86.95% of what we expected (a decrease of 13%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among babies in their first year of life living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

2,362 ÷ 617,441 = 0.00383 (5-yr CDR)

84,431(2022 pop) X 0.00383 = 323 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

328 – 323 = 5 or 5 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

328 ÷ 323 = 1.0129 or an increase of 1%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among babies in their first year of life living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

701,872 X 0.00446 = 3,129 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2690 – 3,129 = -439 or 439 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

2,690 ÷ 3,129 = 0.8578 or a decrease of 14%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among babies in their first year of life living in Washington in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.