2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 45-49 | Washington, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 45-49 in Washington

1. 860 of 1,401 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 61.38% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 12% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 765 of 1,274 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 95 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 127 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 360 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 158 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Washington’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 12% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 45-49 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 860 of 456,932 people aged 45-49 living in Washington died from Unknown Causes.

860 ÷ 456,932 = 0.00188 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 12,056 deaths from Unknown Causes among 7,203,635 people aged 45-49 living in Washington in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

12,056 ÷ 7,203,635 = 0.00167 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

456,932 X 0.00167 = 765 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

860 – 765 = 95

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

860 ÷ 765 = 1.1179

This reveals 95 lives lost and is 111.79% of what we expected (an increase of 12%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 45-49 living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

5,735 ÷ 3,268,292 = 0.00175 (5-yr CDR)

456,932(2022 pop) X 0.00175 = 802 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

860 – 802 = 58 or 58 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

860 ÷ 802 = 1.0665 or an increase of 7%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 45-49 living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

3,725,224 X 0.00167 = 6,235 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

6595 – 6,235 = 360 or 360 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

6,595 ÷ 6,235 = 1.0515 or an increase of 5%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 45-49 living in Washington in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.