2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 70-74 | Washington, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 70-74 in Washington

1. 1,973 of 7,650 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 25.79% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 17% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 2,387 of 8,335 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 414 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 685 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 3,312 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 7,177 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Washington’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 17% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 70-74 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,973 of 352,951 elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Washington died from Unknown Causes.

1,973 ÷ 352,951 = 0.00559 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 18,328 deaths from Unknown Causes among 2,709,743 elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Washington in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

18,328 ÷ 2,709,743 = 0.00676 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

352,951 X 0.00676 = 2,387 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,973 – 2,387 = -414

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,973 ÷ 2,387 = 0.8252

This reveals 414 lives saved and is 82.52% of what we expected (a decrease of 17%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

11,530 ÷ 2,133,107 = 0.00541 (5-yr CDR)

352,951(2022 pop) X 0.00541 = 1,908 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,973 – 1,908 = 65 or 65 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,973 ÷ 1,908 = 1.0323 or an increase of 3%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,486,058 X 0.00676 = 16,815 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

13503 – 16,815 = -3,312 or 3,312 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

13,503 ÷ 16,815 = 0.8018 or a decrease of 20%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Washington in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.