2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 80-84 | Washington, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 80-84 in Washington

1. 1,896 of 8,893 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 21.32% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 7% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,778 of 9,001 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 118 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 108 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 633 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 4,680 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Washington’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 7% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 80-84 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,896 of 141,652 elderly men and women aged 80-84 living in Washington died from Unknown Causes.

1,896 ÷ 141,652 = 0.01338 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 20,672 deaths from Unknown Causes among 1,647,107 elderly men and women aged 80-84 living in Washington in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

20,672 ÷ 1,647,107 = 0.01255 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

141,652 X 0.01255 = 1,778 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,896 – 1,778 = 118

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,896 ÷ 1,778 = 1.0656

This reveals 118 lives lost and is 106.56% of what we expected (an increase of 7%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 80-84 living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

11,396 ÷ 867,031 = 0.01314 (5-yr CDR)

141,652(2022 pop) X 0.01314 = 1,862 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,896 – 1,862 = 34 or 34 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,896 ÷ 1,862 = 1.0176 or an increase of 2%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 80-84 living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,008,683 X 0.01255 = 12,659 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

13292 – 12,659 = 633 or 633 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

13,292 ÷ 12,659 = 1.0491 or an increase of 5%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 80-84 living in Washington in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.