2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – Ages 60-64 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 60-64 in California

1. 1,804 of 13,903 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 12.98% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 9% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,965 of 13,248 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 161 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 655 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 1,915 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 2,639 excess All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of California’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 9% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 60-64 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,804 of 1,134,245 men aged 60-64 living in California died from Unknown Causes.

1,804 ÷ 1,134,245 = 0.00159 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 19,751 deaths from Unknown Causes among 11,400,572 men aged 60-64 living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

19,751 ÷ 11,400,572 = 0.00173 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,134,245 X 0.00173 = 1,965 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,804 – 1,965 = -161

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,804 ÷ 1,965 = 0.9128

This reveals 161 lives saved and is 91.28% of what we expected (a decrease of 9%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 60-64 living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

11,362 ÷ 7,570,854 = 0.00150 (5-yr CDR)

1,134,245(2022 pop) X 0.00150 = 1,702 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,804 – 1,702 = 102 or 102 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,804 ÷ 1,702 = 1.0528 or an increase of 5%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 60-64 living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

8,705,099 X 0.00173 = 15,081 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

13166 – 15,081 = -1,915 or 1,915 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

13,166 ÷ 15,081 = 0.8680 or a decrease of 13%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 60-64 living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.