2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 60-64 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 60-64 in California

1. 3,163 of 22,285 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 14.19% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 10% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 3,492 of 21,562 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 329 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 723 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 3,639 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 217 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of California’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 10% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 60-64 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 3,163 of 2,301,629 people aged 60-64 living in California died from Unknown Causes.

3,163 ÷ 2,301,629 = 0.00137 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 36,165 deaths from Unknown Causes among 23,837,247 people aged 60-64 living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

36,165 ÷ 23,837,247 = 0.00152 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

2,301,629 X 0.00152 = 3,492 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

3,163 – 3,492 = -329

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

3,163 ÷ 3,492 = 0.8999

This reveals 329 lives saved and is 89.99% of what we expected (a decrease of 10%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 60-64 living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

20,500 ÷ 15,693,953 = 0.00131 (5-yr CDR)

2,301,629(2022 pop) X 0.00131 = 3,006 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3,163 – 3,006 = 157 or 157 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

3,163 ÷ 3,006 = 1.0441 or an increase of 4%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 60-64 living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

17,995,582 X 0.00152 = 27,302 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

23663 – 27,302 = -3,639 or 3,639 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

23,663 ÷ 27,302 = 0.8610 or a decrease of 14%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 60-64 living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.