2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – 45-49 | Ontario, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 45-49 in Ontario

1. 202 of 1,084 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 18.63% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 399% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 36 of 1,125 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 166 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 41 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 440 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 831 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Ontario’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 399% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 45-49 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 202 of 446,204 men aged 45-49 living in Ontario died from Unknown Causes.

202 ÷ 446,204 = 0.00045 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 606 deaths from Unknown Causes among 7,513,126 men aged 45-49 living in Ontario in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

606 ÷ 7,513,126 = 0.00008 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

446,204 X 0.00008 = 36 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

202 – 36 = 166

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

202 ÷ 36 = 4.9935

This reveals 166 lives lost and is 499.35% of what we expected (an increase of 399%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 45-49 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

536 ÷ 3,254,194 = 0.00016 (5-yr CDR)

446,204(2022 pop) X 0.00016 = 73 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

202 – 73 = 129 or 129 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

202 ÷ 73 = 2.5912 or an increase of 159%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 45-49 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

3,700,398 X 0.00008 = 298 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

738 – 298 = 440 or 440 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

738 ÷ 298 = 2.1999 or an increase of 120%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 45-49 living in Ontario in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.