2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Female – 80-84 | Ontario, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 80-84 in Ontario

1. 296 of 7,689 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 3.85% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 68% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 175 of 9,444 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 121 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 1,755 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 185 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 10,696 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Ontario’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 68% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 80-84 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 296 of 192,116 elderly women aged 80-84 living in Ontario died from Unknown Causes.

296 ÷ 192,116 = 0.00154 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 2,010 deaths from Unknown Causes among 2,211,891 elderly women aged 80-84 living in Ontario in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

2,010 ÷ 2,211,891 = 0.00091 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

192,116 X 0.00091 = 175 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

296 – 175 = 121

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

296 ÷ 175 = 1.6770

This reveals 121 lives lost and is 167.70% of what we expected (an increase of 68%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly women aged 80-84 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

1,160 ÷ 1,206,048 = 0.00096 (5-yr CDR)

192,116(2022 pop) X 0.00096 = 185 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

296 – 185 = 111 or 111 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

296 ÷ 185 = 1.5854 or an increase of 59%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly women aged 80-84 living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,398,164 X 0.00091 = 1,271 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1456 – 1,271 = 185 or 185 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

1,456 ÷ 1,271 = 1.1335 or an increase of 13%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly women aged 80-84 living in Ontario in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.