2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – 15-19 | New York, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for teen-aged girls aged 15-19 in New York

1. 127 of 127 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 99.99% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 12% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 138 of 138 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 11 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 213 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 12% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many teen-aged girls aged 15-19 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 127 of 585,508 teen-aged girls aged 15-19 living in New York died from All Causes.

127 ÷ 585,508 = 0.00022 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 2,303 deaths from All Causes among 9,758,586 teen-aged girls aged 15-19 living in New York in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

2,303 ÷ 9,758,586 = 0.00024 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

585,508 X 0.00024 = 138 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

127 – 138 = -11

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

127 ÷ 138 = 0.8817

This reveals 11 lives saved and is 88.17% of what we expected (a decrease of 12%) in deaths from All Causes among teen-aged girls aged 15-19 living in New York in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

776 ÷ 4,142,352 = 0.00019 (5-yr CDR)

585,508(2022 pop) X 0.00019 = 110 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

127 – 110 = 17 or 17 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

127 ÷ 110 = 1.0992 or an increase of 10%

for deaths from All Causes among teen-aged girls aged 15-19 living in New York in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

4,727,860 X 0.00024 = 1,116 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

903 – 1,116 = -213 or 213 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

903 ÷ 1,116 = 0.7764 or a decrease of 22%

in deaths from All Causes among teen-aged girls aged 15-19 living in New York in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.