2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – 40-44 | New York, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for women aged 40-44 in New York

1. 955 of 955 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 9% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 872 of 872 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 83 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 429 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 9% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many women aged 40-44 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 955 of 612,670 women aged 40-44 living in New York died from All Causes.

955 ÷ 612,670 = 0.00156 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 15,557 deaths from All Causes among 10,930,257 women aged 40-44 living in New York in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

15,557 ÷ 10,930,257 = 0.00142 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

612,670 X 0.00142 = 872 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

955 – 872 = 83

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

955 ÷ 872 = 1.0875

This reveals 83 lives lost and is 108.75% of what we expected (an increase of 9%) in deaths from All Causes among women aged 40-44 living in New York in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

5,503 ÷ 4,226,360 = 0.00130 (5-yr CDR)

612,670(2022 pop) X 0.00130 = 798 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

955 – 798 = 157 or 157 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

955 ÷ 798 = 1.1880 or an increase of 19%

for deaths from All Causes among women aged 40-44 living in New York in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

4,839,030 X 0.00142 = 6,887 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

6458 – 6,887 = -429 or 429 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

6,458 ÷ 6,887 = 0.9311 or a decrease of 7%

in deaths from All Causes among women aged 40-44 living in New York in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.