2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – Ages 80-84 | New York, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 80-84 in New York

1. 1,332 of 10,954 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 12.16% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 9% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,224 of 12,408 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 108 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 1,454 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 401 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 10,019 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of New York’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 9% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 80-84 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,332 of 170,405 elderly men aged 80-84 living in New York died from Unknown Causes.

1,332 ÷ 170,405 = 0.00782 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 15,519 deaths from Unknown Causes among 2,160,682 elderly men aged 80-84 living in New York in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

15,519 ÷ 2,160,682 = 0.00718 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

170,405 X 0.00718 = 1,224 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,332 – 1,224 = 108

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,332 ÷ 1,224 = 1.0868

This reveals 108 lives lost and is 108.68% of what we expected (an increase of 9%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 80-84 living in New York in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

8,191 ÷ 1,099,624 = 0.00745 (5-yr CDR)

170,405(2022 pop) X 0.00745 = 1,269 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,332 – 1,269 = 63 or 63 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,332 ÷ 1,269 = 1.0480 or an increase of 5%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 80-84 living in New York in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,270,029 X 0.00718 = 9,122 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

9523 – 9,122 = 401 or 401 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

9,523 ÷ 9,122 = 1.0425 or an increase of 4%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 80-84 living in New York in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.