2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Teen-aged – 15-19 | New York, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for teens aged 15-19 in New York

1. 256 of 407 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 62.90% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 27% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 340 of 487 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 84 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 80 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 566 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 810 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of New York’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 27% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many teens aged 15-19 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 256 of 1,194,568 teens aged 15-19 living in New York died from Unknown Causes.

256 ÷ 1,194,568 = 0.00021 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 5,698 deaths from Unknown Causes among 20,005,972 teens aged 15-19 living in New York in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

5,698 ÷ 20,005,972 = 0.00028 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,194,568 X 0.00028 = 340 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

256 – 340 = -84

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

256 ÷ 340 = 0.7269

This reveals 84 lives saved and is 72.69% of what we expected (a decrease of 27%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among teens aged 15-19 living in New York in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

1,921 ÷ 8,434,989 = 0.00023 (5-yr CDR)

1,194,568(2022 pop) X 0.00023 = 272 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

256 – 272 = -16 or 16 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

256 ÷ 272 = 0.9014 or a decrease of 10%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among teens aged 15-19 living in New York in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

9,629,557 X 0.00028 = 2,743 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2177 – 2,743 = -566 or 566 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

2,177 ÷ 2,743 = 0.7668 or a decrease of 23%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among teens aged 15-19 living in New York in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.