2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – Ages 55-59 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 55-59 in California

1. 1,595 of 9,761 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 16.34% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 5% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,662 of 9,612 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 67 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 149 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 1,298 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 775 excess All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of California’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 5% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 55-59 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,595 of 1,195,908 men aged 55-59 living in California died from Unknown Causes.

1,595 ÷ 1,195,908 = 0.00133 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 20,440 deaths from Unknown Causes among 14,711,860 men aged 55-59 living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

20,440 ÷ 14,711,860 = 0.00139 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,195,908 X 0.00139 = 1,662 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,595 – 1,662 = -67

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,595 ÷ 1,662 = 0.9531

This reveals 67 lives saved and is 95.31% of what we expected (a decrease of 5%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 55-59 living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

10,722 ÷ 8,603,950 = 0.00125 (5-yr CDR)

1,195,908(2022 pop) X 0.00125 = 1,490 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,595 – 1,490 = 105 or 105 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,595 ÷ 1,490 = 1.0617 or an increase of 6%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 55-59 living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

9,799,858 X 0.00139 = 13,615 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

12317 – 13,615 = -1,298 or 1,298 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

12,317 ÷ 13,615 = 0.8982 or a decrease of 10%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 55-59 living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.