2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – 55-59 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 55-59 in California

1. 2,763 of 15,243 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 18.13% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 4% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 2,869 of 15,176 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 106 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 67 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 2,410 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 1,102 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of California’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 4% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 55-59 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 2,763 of 2,385,680 people aged 55-59 living in California died from Unknown Causes.

2,763 ÷ 2,385,680 = 0.00116 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 36,412 deaths from Unknown Causes among 30,280,047 people aged 55-59 living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

36,412 ÷ 30,280,047 = 0.00120 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

2,385,680 X 0.00120 = 2,869 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

2,763 – 2,869 = -106

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

2,763 ÷ 2,869 = 0.9552

This reveals 106 lives saved and is 95.52% of what we expected (a decrease of 4%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 55-59 living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

18,734 ÷ 17,495,320 = 0.00107 (5-yr CDR)

2,385,680(2022 pop) X 0.00107 = 2,555 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2,763 – 2,555 = 208 or 208 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

2,763 ÷ 2,555 = 1.0716 or an increase of 7%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 55-59 living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

19,881,000 X 0.00120 = 23,907 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

21497 – 23,907 = -2,410 or 2,410 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

21,497 ÷ 23,907 = 0.8918 or a decrease of 11%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 55-59 living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.