2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Girls – Ages 5-9 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for girls aged 5-9 in California

1. 104 of 104 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 99.99% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 21% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 120 of 123 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 16 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 19 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 221 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 234 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of California’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 21% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many girls aged 5-9 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 104 of 1,151,013 girls aged 5-9 living in California died from Unknown Causes.

104 ÷ 1,151,013 = 0.00009 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 1,928 deaths from Unknown Causes among 18,496,898 girls aged 5-9 living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

1,928 ÷ 18,496,898 = 0.00010 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,151,013 X 0.00010 = 120 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

104 – 120 = -16

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

104 ÷ 120 = 0.7910

This reveals 16 lives saved and is 79.10% of what we expected (a decrease of 21%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among girls aged 5-9 living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

685 ÷ 8,535,615 = 0.00008 (5-yr CDR)

1,151,013(2022 pop) X 0.00008 = 92 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

104 – 92 = 12 or 12 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

104 ÷ 92 = 1.0011 or an increase of 0%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among girls aged 5-9 living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

9,686,628 X 0.00010 = 1,010 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

789 – 1,010 = -221 or 221 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

789 ÷ 1,010 = 0.7130 or a decrease of 29%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among girls aged 5-9 living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.