2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Girls And Boys – Ages 5-9 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for children aged 5-9 in California

1. 226 of 226 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 21% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 262 of 274 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 36 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 48 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 445 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 519 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of California’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 21% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many children aged 5-9 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 226 of 2,358,168 children aged 5-9 living in California died from Unknown Causes.

226 ÷ 2,358,168 = 0.00010 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 4,212 deaths from Unknown Causes among 37,846,046 children aged 5-9 living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

4,212 ÷ 37,846,046 = 0.00011 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

2,358,168 X 0.00011 = 262 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

226 – 262 = -36

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

226 ÷ 262 = 0.7901

This reveals 36 lives saved and is 79.01% of what we expected (a decrease of 21%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among children aged 5-9 living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

1,535 ÷ 17,463,867 = 0.00009 (5-yr CDR)

2,358,168(2022 pop) X 0.00009 = 207 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

226 – 207 = 19 or 19 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

226 ÷ 207 = 0.9790 or an increase of 2%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among children aged 5-9 living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

19,822,035 X 0.00011 = 2,206 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1761 – 2,206 = -445 or 445 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

1,761 ÷ 2,206 = 0.7324 or a decrease of 27%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among children aged 5-9 living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.