2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Female – Ages 55-59 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for women aged 55-59 in California

1. 1,168 of 5,482 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 21.31% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 5% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,221 of 5,684 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 53 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 202 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 1,163 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 2,335 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of California’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 5% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many women aged 55-59 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,168 of 1,189,772 women aged 55-59 living in California died from Unknown Causes.

1,168 ÷ 1,189,772 = 0.00098 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 15,972 deaths from Unknown Causes among 15,568,187 women aged 55-59 living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

15,972 ÷ 15,568,187 = 0.00103 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,189,772 X 0.00103 = 1,221 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,168 – 1,221 = -53

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,168 ÷ 1,221 = 0.9476

This reveals 53 lives saved and is 94.76% of what we expected (a decrease of 5%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among women aged 55-59 living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

8,012 ÷ 8,891,370 = 0.00090 (5-yr CDR)

1,189,772(2022 pop) X 0.00090 = 1,072 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,168 – 1,072 = 96 or 96 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,168 ÷ 1,072 = 1.0775 or an increase of 8%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among women aged 55-59 living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

10,081,142 X 0.00103 = 10,343 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

9180 – 10,343 = -1,163 or 1,163 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

9,180 ÷ 10,343 = 0.8790 or a decrease of 12%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among women aged 55-59 living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.