2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Female – 65-69 | Massachusetts, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 65-69 in Massachusetts

1. 687 of 2,112 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 32.53% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 16% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 818 of 2,431 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 131 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 319 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 751 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 2,888 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Massachusetts’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 16% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 65-69 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 687 of 213,035 elderly women aged 65-69 living in Massachusetts died from Unknown Causes.

687 ÷ 213,035 = 0.00322 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 7,652 deaths from Unknown Causes among 1,992,860 elderly women aged 65-69 living in Massachusetts in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

7,652 ÷ 1,992,860 = 0.00384 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

213,035 X 0.00384 = 818 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

687 – 818 = -131

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

687 ÷ 818 = 0.8377

This reveals 131 lives saved and is 83.77% of what we expected (a decrease of 16%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly women aged 65-69 living in Massachusetts in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

4,671 ÷ 1,378,033 = 0.00339 (5-yr CDR)

213,035(2022 pop) X 0.00339 = 722 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

687 – 722 = -35 or 35 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

687 ÷ 722 = 0.9486 or a decrease of 5%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly women aged 65-69 living in Massachusetts in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,591,068 X 0.00384 = 6,109 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

5358 – 6,109 = -751 or 751 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

5,358 ÷ 6,109 = 0.8748 or a decrease of 13%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly women aged 65-69 living in Massachusetts in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.