2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Female – Under 1 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for baby girls in their first year of life in California

1. 405 of 752 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 53.86% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 14% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 469 of 985 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 64 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 233 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 545 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 1,933 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of California’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 14% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many baby girls in their first year of life were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 405 of 207,859 baby girls in their first year of life living in California died from Unknown Causes.

405 ÷ 207,859 = 0.00195 (2022 CDR)

The table shows there were a total of 8,464 deaths from Unknown Causes among 3,753,456 baby girls in their first year of life living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

8,464 ÷ 3,753,456 = 0.00225 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

207,859 X 0.00225 = 469 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

405 – 469 = -64

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

405 ÷ 469 = 0.8602

This reveals 64 lives saved and is 86.02% of what we expected (a decrease of 14%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among baby girls in their first year of life living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

3,152 ÷ 1,611,397 = 0.00196 (5-yr CDR)

207,859(2022 pop) X 0.00196 = 407 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

405 – 407 = -2 or 2 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

405 ÷ 407 = 0.9910 or a decrease of 1%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among baby girls in their first year of life living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,819,256 X 0.00225 = 4,102 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3557 – 4,102 = -545 or 545 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

3,557 ÷ 4,102 = 0.8632 or a decrease of 14%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among baby girls in their first year of life living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.