2023 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – Ages 45-49 | Canada

2023 vs New Normal™ for men aged 45-49 in Canada

1. 470 of 3,224 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 14.58% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 311% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 102 of 3,123 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 368 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2023.
6. 101 excess All Cause deaths in 2023.
7. 1,691 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2023)
8. 982 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 9 years of Canada’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 311% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2023 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 45-49 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2023, 470 of 1,223,356 men aged 45-49 living in Canada died from Unknown Causes.

470 ÷ 1,223,356 = 0.00038 (2023 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 1,633 deaths from Unknown Causes among 19,539,220 men aged 45-49 living in Canada in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

1,633 ÷ 19,539,220 = 0.00008 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2023 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,223,356 X 0.00008 = 102 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

470 – 102 = 368

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

470 ÷ 102 = 4.1057

This reveals 368 lives lost and is 410.57% of what we expected (an increase of 311%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 45-49 living in Canada in 2023, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

2,124 ÷ 9,576,663 = 0.00022 (5-yr CDR)

1,223,356(2023 pop) X 0.00022 = 271 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

470 – 271 = 199 or 199 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

470 ÷ 271 = 1.6575 or an increase of 66%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 45-49 living in Canada in 2023, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

10,800,019 X 0.00008 = 903 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2594 – 903 = 1,691 or 1,691 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

2,594 ÷ 903 = 2.5667 or an increase of 157%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 45-49 living in Canada in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.