2023 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – Ages 90+ | Canada

2023 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 90+ in Canada

1. 935 of 24,847 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 3.76% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 21% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 770 of 26,379 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 165 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2023.
6. 1,532 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2023.
7. 771 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2023)
8. 9,058 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 9 years of Canada’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 21% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2023 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 90+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2023, 935 of 113,516 elderly men aged 90+ living in Canada died from Unknown Causes.

935 ÷ 113,516 = 0.00824 (2023 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 4,956 deaths from Unknown Causes among 730,725 elderly men aged 90+ living in Canada in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

4,956 ÷ 730,725 = 0.00678 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2023 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

113,516 X 0.00678 = 770 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

935 – 770 = 165

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

935 ÷ 770 = 1.2127

This reveals 165 lives lost and is 121.27% of what we expected (an increase of 21%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 90+ living in Canada in 2023, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

5,718 ÷ 753,697 = 0.00759 (5-yr CDR)

113,516(2023 pop) X 0.00759 = 861 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

935 – 861 = 74 or 74 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

935 ÷ 861 = 1.0843 or an increase of 8%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 90+ living in Canada in 2023, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

867,213 X 0.00678 = 5,882 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

6653 – 5,882 = 771 or 771 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

6,653 ÷ 5,882 = 1.1295 or an increase of 13%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 90+ living in Canada in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.