2022 Deaths – All Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 70-74 | Alberta, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 70-74 in Alberta

1. 3,321 of 3,321 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 6% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 3,548 of 3,548 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 227 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 2,868 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 6% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 70-74 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 3,321 of 172,273 elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Alberta died from All Causes.

3,321 ÷ 172,273 = 0.01928 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 26,093 deaths from All Causes among 1,266,851 elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Alberta in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

26,093 ÷ 1,266,851 = 0.02060 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

172,273 X 0.02060 = 3,548 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

3,321 – 3,548 = -227

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

3,321 ÷ 3,548 = 0.9355

This reveals 227 lives saved and is 93.55% of what we expected (a decrease of 6%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Alberta in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

17,335 ÷ 969,860 = 0.01787 (5-yr CDR)

172,273(2022 pop) X 0.01787 = 3,079 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3,321 – 3,079 = 242 or 242 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

3,321 ÷ 3,079 = 1.0779 or an increase of 8%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Alberta in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,142,133 X 0.02060 = 23,524 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

20656 – 23,524 = -2,868 or 2,868 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

20,656 ÷ 23,524 = 0.8776 or a decrease of 12%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly men and women aged 70-74 living in Alberta in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.